THE CONTEST – AT 10:16 A.M. ET:  Six days to election day.  The president is at 49% in the Rasmussen poll, meaning that all that has been thrown at him in the last week by the Trump-hating press has made almost no difference, at least in this poll, which is the only daily tracker left.

RealClearPolitics is predicting a net gain of two seats for the GOP in the Senate.  The crushing disappointment is Arizona, where it is now widely assumed that Krysten Sinema, who has been described as the best actress in politics today, is overcoming true American heroine Martha McSally for the Senate seat being vacated by Jeff Flake.  Arizona may be the only Republican loss in the Senate. 

It is hard to believe that the state of John McCain will turn to a hard leftist who parades as a moderate.  What is happening to our country?  To Arizona?  In fact, Arizona has been trending from solid red to purple in recent years.  A huge influx of immigrants is probably the main cause.  These folks are subjected to major-league fear tactics, told that if they vote Republican they'll be sent back to Mexico.  In addition, much has been made of Martha's vote against Obamacare.  Arizona has many retirees. 

In the House, RealClearPolitics predicts 204 Dems, 199 Republicans, but with 32 toss-ups.  Almost all the toss-ups are currently held by Republicans, but in districts won by Hillary Clinton.  The Dems may well take the House, but, if the RCP numbers are correct, it won't be by much.  Remember that there are in fact moderate Democrats in Congress.  They are not going to fall on their swords for Maxine Waters.  What we may have is an odd situation in which the moderate Democrats hold the balance of power, and where the House is actually run by Republicans and those moderate Dems.  It's happened before.

In governorships, we have an outside shot at blue Oregon, but I wouldn't put money on it.  The frightening race is Florida, where-hard left and Soros beneficiary Andrew Gillum is running neck-and-neck with so-so GOP candidate Ron DeSantis.  If Gillum wins, he instantly becomes a national ticket possibility, and we may have someone to the left of Barack Obama.

Another fright is Georgia, where Oprah Winfrey is coming in to campaign for leftist Dem Stacey Abrams.  She is not as leftward as Gillum, but she's left enough to bring concern about the future of Georgia. 

We'll keep you informed, but I caution that what we have at this stage is educated guessing.

October 31,  2018